Mogadishu — Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud is expected to arrive in the southern port city of Kismayo within hours for a critical face-to-face meeting with Jubbaland’s regional leader, Ahmed Mohamed Islam, commonly known as Ahmed Madobe. The talks come at a tense moment following mounting political friction between the Federal Government of Somalia (FGS) and the Jubbaland administration.
The mediation effort—now drawing the attention of Kenya, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), and Ethiopia—seeks to de-escalate a standoff that has threatened to further strain federal–state relations. Kenyan intelligence chief Nooradin Yusuf Haji is reportedly spearheading the regional initiative aimed at brokering a compromise between Villa Somalia and Ahmed Madobe’s camp.
The political tension deepened in recent weeks when the Banadir Regional Court issued an arrest warrant for Ahmed Madobe. The Federal Cabinet later reinforced the move, accusing the Jubbaland leader of maintaining alleged ties with the militant group Al-Shabaab—a claim Madobe has vehemently denied.
Analysts say the arrest order was more political than judicial, reflecting the long-standing power struggle between Mogadishu and Kismayo over control of regional security forces, port revenues, and federal authority in Jubbaland.
President Hassan Sheikh’s trip to Kismayo follows intensive shuttle diplomacy led by neighboring countries. Kenyan, Ethiopian, and Emirati officials have been in close contact with both sides in recent days, urging dialogue to prevent a potential political rupture that could destabilize the wider southern region.
A high-level advance delegation from Villa Somalia, including security officers and presidential aides, arrived in Kismayo earlier today to prepare for the president’s visit. Also present in the city are intelligence and diplomatic representatives from Kenya and Ethiopia—underscoring the regional stakes of the talks.
Meanwhile, Ahmed Madobe met with clan elders and community leaders loyal to his administration, reportedly telling them that the upcoming dialogue was being driven by external pressure rather than genuine political will from Mogadishu.
“This is not an internal reconciliation,” Madobe was quoted as saying. “It is a negotiation forced upon us by regional and international actors.”
Kismayo, often described as Jubbaland’s political and economic nerve center, is currently witnessing tight security and visible preparations for President Hassan Sheikh’s arrival. Local sources report road closures, troop deployments, and an increase in foreign security advisors operating discreetly around key venues.
The Federal Government has not yet issued an official statement clarifying whether the previous legal actions against Ahmed Madobe will be withdrawn or suspended as part of the peace effort.
Diplomatic insiders suggest that the Kismayo talks could determine the future of Somalia’s federal relationship with its member states. Kenya’s leading role in the mediation is also viewed as a signal of Nairobi’s ongoing influence in Jubbaland’s political dynamics.
If the meeting results in progress, it could pave the way for broader reconciliation and cooperation between the central government and regional administrations—an essential step as Somalia heads toward a delicate electoral season and continued security operations against Al-Shabaab.
But if the talks collapse, observers warn, it could deepen political fragmentation and embolden insurgent groups exploiting divisions within the Somali state.
all eyes are now on Kismayo. The outcome of this high-stakes meeting between President Hassan Sheikh and Ahmed Madobe may well shape Somalia’s federal future—for better or worse.
