CAIRO – President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud of the Federal Republic of Somalia is set to depart for Cairo, Egypt’s capital, where he will hold a high-level bilateral meeting with his Egyptian counterpart, President Abdel Fattah Al-Sisi. The talks, deemed one of the most sensitive and strategic diplomatic engagements this year, are expected to focus on strengthening Somalia–Egypt relations, while also addressing growing geopolitical tensions in the Horn of Africa, particularly concerning Ethiopia’s controversial Nile River dam project.
The visit comes at a highly volatile time for the region. Ethiopia has recently announced plans to begin releasing water from its Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) on the Blue Nile to generate electricity—an act that has outraged Egypt, which heavily depends on Nile waters for its survival. Egypt views any obstruction to the Nile’s natural flow as a national security threat and an existential issue for over 100 million Egyptians.
The Somali President’s visit is, therefore, not just a diplomatic courtesy—it is part of a broader realignment of regional power dynamics, where Cairo hopes to rally African and Arab allies to stand with its position on Nile water rights.
Key agenda items for the Cairo summit include:
- Enhancing strategic bilateral relations between Somalia and Egypt,
- Coordinating positions on the Nile River crisis, and
- Discussing regional security in the Horn of Africa, especially amid growing tensions between Ethiopia and neighboringcountries.
According to diplomatic sources in Cairo, Egypt is keen to ensure that Somalia does not support or attend ceremonies associated with Ethiopia’s dam project—particularly the upcoming inauguration of the new hydropower facilities.
The Horn of Africa is currently experiencing multiple overlapping crises. Apart from the Nile issue, Ethiopia has reportedly filed a formal complaint against Eritrea, accusing the Red Sea nation of planning a military strike on Ethiopian soil within the next three months—further escalating regional anxieties.
Meanwhile, relations between Somalia and Ethiopia have recently thawed after months of strained diplomacy over a controversial maritime deal. Dialogue facilitated in Ankara, Turkey, and reciprocal official visits helped ease tensions, though the situation remains fragile.
Adding to the complexity, Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has officially invited President Hassan Sheikh to the inauguration of the GERD project. Should Somalia accept the invitation, it could spark a political backlash from Cairo and Khartoum, both of whom categorically oppose the dam’s current trajectory.
Egypt sees Somalia as a potential diplomatic ally in its Nile campaign. Cairo believes that if countries like Somalia, Djibouti, and Sudan can be persuaded to oppose Ethiopia’s unilateral moves, it can mount stronger regional and international opposition. Sources close to the Egyptian presidency say efforts are being made to convince Somalia to avoid attending GERD-related events, framing participation as tantamount to endorsing Ethiopia’s position.
“Egypt wants to ensure that Somalia aligns with the broader Arab consensus opposing the GERD. President Hassan’s upcoming visit will determine whether Somalia can maintain neutrality or is drawn into a wider regional confrontation,” said a regional analyst based in Cairo.
The summit is expected to be held in the coming days at Egypt’s Presidential Palace in central Cairo. While the exact schedule has not been made public, early reports suggest the meeting will be held behind closed doors with no media access.
